EASY MONEY.

by Dr. Bart DiLiddo Friday, 06/15/2007
Starting at 6:00 PM each evening, CNBC runs a series of programs called "Mad Money", "On the Money" and "Fast Money". Each show is designed to stimulate your greedy juices for making a killing in the stock market. Each show recommends or highlights stock after stock that could go up in price. The game is clear. If they throw enough names out there, some of them are bound to go up. I don't know how anyone could listen to these shows without using VectorVest to check out the stock tips.

Besides, I've got a strategy that makes money, beats the market and doesn't require two hours of "homework on each stock every week." I'd quit investing if I had to do that. In fact this strategy is so easy to use, you could manage a portfolio of these stocks in less than 10 minutes a week. It's not a "buy and hold" strategy, but turnover is low and the percentage of winners is high. If you want, you don't even have to time-the-market. But you would have to follow a simple plan for buying and selling positions.

The secret to getting 20 plus percent per year gains lies in the sort. Of course, VST does the job. So if you want to read the paper, drink a martini, eat dinner, smoke a cigar and walk the dog between six and nine o'clock each evening, stop watching CNBC and start using Easy Money.

P.S. This week's "Strategy of the Week" illustrates what Easy Money is all about and how to use it. Visit the VectorVest University to see it now.

INFLATION FANTASIES.
When I was a kid, I accepted things pretty much as they were. Sure, I would fantasize about being the next Otto Graham or Joe DiMaggio, but I never dreamt of distorting reality. For example, I caddied at a prestigious Country Club and would get to play there on Mondays. Like all golfers, I used to visualize my shots before I struck the ball. If I had done what I had visualized, I would have made Ben Hogan look like a duffer. But I hardly ever made shots as I had visualized and I had to accept the consequences of my failures. I never thought of changing fact to fantasy back then, but I learned how it's done later in life.

I learned this wonderful skill from a bunch of whiz kids from the best business schools in the country. If they didn't like a business or situation, they just sold the business or took an eraser and changed the numbers. Selling a business or changing numbers is easy. It takes no skill or expertise. But it's not dealing with reality. As a chemical engineer, I had to deal with physical reality. If a vessel were leaking a poisonous chemical, we had to physically fix the leak. We couldn't stop the leak by assuming it wasn't leaking. A lot of people in today's world don't understand that because they never dealt with physical reality. So they create a fantasy world of false assumptions and distorted numbers that doesn't exist. They are lying to us, and we believe them.

Today we got the CPI inflation report for May 2007. It showed that consumer prices rose at the fastest rate in 20 months, powered by surging food and energy prices. That's really bad news -- but not if you don't count food and energy prices. "They're too volatile." The core rate of inflation, i.e., without food and energy, rose only 0.1 percent in May, much less than 0.7% for all items. So today's inflation report was really good news. Really?

What we have here folks, is The Federal Reserve Board's version of "The Big Lie" as promulgated by Adolph Hitler and Joseph Goebbels. Make the lie preposterous enough, make it big enough and repeat it often enough and the "thick-headed numbskulls" will believe it. Indeed, stock traders swallowed the spin and stock prices took off. Even if you're offended by Wall Street's antics, forget about it. It's more profitable to fly on the wings of Inflation Fantasies.

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THE DEADLY DUO

by Dr. Bart DiLiddo Friday, 06/08/2007
It's been a long time since rising inflation and rising interest rates have been headline news. But they were this week, and that's not good for stock prices. Rising inflation destroys wealth and rising interest rates raises costs. Ironically rising inflation is seen as an enemy, which it is, and rising interest rates is seen as a weapon to fight inflation. Together they can devastate an economy, torpedo corporate profits and cause a bear market.

As Chairman of The Federal Reserve Board, Dr. Bernanke's job is to maintain monetary stability and to ensure full employment. (The latter task was added to the Fed Chairman's job a few years ago to make the politicians happy.) Nevertheless, his real job is to fight inflation. So he and his associates, known as Fed Governors, have been railing against inflation ever since he took office in February 2006. Moreover, Dr. Bernanke followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and raised interest rates several times after taking office. The last interest rate increase took place in June, a year ago. At that time he said the Fed would consider pausing in their rate hikes since a slower economy would moderate inflation.

First quarter, 2007 GDP growth recently was the lowest in four years, a tepid 0.6%. So investors thought Dr. Bernanke would finally lower interest rates. This move, they thought, would spur the economy, ensure solid corporate earnings and help stock prices go higher. But Dr. Bernanke fooled them. In a speech this week, he said he expects the economy to get stronger over the next few quarters, so he would remain vigilant in the battle against inflation. In just a few words, he crushed any thoughts of an interest rate reduction anytime soon. Stock prices fell sharply.

To be fair, Dr. Bernanke never indicated that he was more likely to lower interest rates than he was to increase them in his fifteen months in office. On several occasions his statements were misinterpreted, (see my essay of 05/05/06), and even I thought that he would lower interest rates. But I should have known better - The Fed Chairman lowers interest rates only after the economy has gotten into trouble, not while it's still showing signs of life, (see my essay of 07/14/06).

Our Market Climate Graphs show that interest yields on 90-Day T-Notes, 10-Year T-Notes and AAA Corporate Bonds bottomed in June 2003, but have not risen substantially since Dr. Bernanke took office. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is about where it was in June 2003, but hit a high of 4.7 %/yr. in October 2005 and a low of 1.3 %/yr. in December 2006. At this point, it is much lower, 2.6 %/yr., than it was in February 2006, 3.4 %/yr., when Dr. Bernanke entered office. So it seems to me that neither inflation nor interest rates have moved much since Dr. Bernanke has been in office and that the media is overreacting to Dr. Bernanke's comments. So we should not worry at this time.

We should start worrying about high inflation and interest rates when they stifle the economy and cause earnings to go lower. VectorVest tracks these data in our Investment Climate report, shown below, and it interprets the data with the Truth Chart. (See my essay of 03/28/03.) Right now, the Truth Chart is saying we are in a Case 4, Bull Market Scenario in which earnings, inflation and interest rates are rising. This scenario has been going on for a long time and will continue to do so, provided that Dr. Bernanke is right about the economy. For now, we do not have to worry about high inflation and high interest rates, The Deadly Duo.

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Inflation | Interest Rates | Market Climate

THE DEADLY DUO.

by Dr. Bart DiLiddo Friday, 06/08/2007
It's been a long time since rising inflation and rising interest rates have been headline news. But they were this week, and that's not good for stock prices. Rising inflation destroys wealth and rising interest rates raises costs. Ironically rising inflation is seen as an enemy, which it is, and rising interest rates is seen as a weapon to fight inflation. Together they can devastate an economy, torpedo corporate profits and cause a bear market.

As Chairman of The Federal Reserve Board, Dr. Bernanke's job is to maintain monetary stability and to ensure full employment. (The latter task was added to the Fed Chairman's job a few years ago to make the politicians happy.) Nevertheless, his real job is to fight inflation. So he and his associates, known as Fed Governors, have been railing against inflation ever since he took office in February 2006. Moreover, Dr. Bernanke followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and raised interest rates several times after taking office. The last interest rate increase took place in June, a year ago. At that time he said the Fed would consider pausing in their rate hikes since a slower economy would moderate inflation.

First quarter, 2007 GDP growth recently was the lowest in four years, a tepid 0.6%. So investors thought Dr. Bernanke would finally lower interest rates. This move, they thought, would spur the economy, ensure solid corporate earnings and help stock prices go higher. But Dr. Bernanke fooled them. In a speech this week, he said he expects the economy to get stronger over the next few quarters, so he would remain vigilant in the battle against inflation. In just a few words, he crushed any thoughts of an interest rate reduction anytime soon. Stock prices fell sharply.

To be fair, Dr. Bernanke never indicated that he was more likely to lower interest rates than he was to increase them in his fifteen months in office. On several occasions his statements were misinterpreted, (see my essay of 05/05/06), and even I thought that he would lower interest rates. But I should have known better - The Fed Chairman lowers interest rates only after the economy has gotten into trouble, not while it's still showing signs of life, (see my essay of 07/14/06).

Our Market Climate Graphs show that interest yields on 90-Day T-Notes, 10-Year T-Notes and AAA Corporate Bonds bottomed in June 2003, but have not risen substantially since Dr. Bernanke took office. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is about where it was in June 2003, but hit a high of 4.7 %/yr. in October 2005 and a low of 1.3 %/yr. in December 2006. At this point, it is much lower, 2.6 %/yr., than it was in February 2006, 3.4 %/yr., when Dr. Bernanke entered office. So it seems to me that neither inflation nor interest rates have moved much since Dr. Bernanke has been in office and that the media is overreacting to Dr. Bernanke's comments. So we should not worry at this time.

We should start worrying about high inflation and interest rates when they stifle the economy and cause earnings to go lower. VectorVest tracks these data in our Investment Climate report, shown below, and it interprets the data with the Truth Chart. (See my essay of 03/28/03.) Right now, the Truth Chart is saying we are in a Case 4, Bull Market Scenario in which earnings, inflation and interest rates are rising. This scenario has been going on for a long time and will continue to do so, provided that Dr. Bernanke is right about the economy. For now, we do not have to worry about high inflation and high interest rates, The Deadly Duo.

BUYING THE BOTTOMS FOR BIG PROFITS.
Downturns are no fun for most investors, but they can turn into great opportunities to buy stocks at low prices. This week's "Strategy of the Week" illustrates this point. Visit the VectorVest University to see how.

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TRY VECTORVEST AUSTRALIA.

by Dr. Bart DiLiddo Friday, 06/01/2007
You are invited to try VectorVest Australia FREE for 30 Days beginning June 1, 2007. The tab, AU Products, will appear on the Homepage of VectorVest OnLine on June 1st. Simply click on the tab and install the product. Users of VectorVest ProGraphics may install the product from our web-site, www.vectorvest.com.

SWEET SPOT.
The first thing any new VectorVest user should know is that high VST stock prices tend to go up and low VST stock prices tend to go down. While we have demonstrated this phenomenon with thousands of tests over a period of many years, it's still hard to believe.

Even I occasionally find myself doubting that some of these high VST stocks can go higher, but they do. Take Spartan Motors, for example: On April 27, 2006 its VST popped from 1.21 to 1.43 on a 24.11% gain in price and a 4,523% surge in volume. There it was in the ranks of the VST elite at $9.33 per share. I'd be lying if I said I bought it at that price, but I smiled when I saw it. I remembered Spartan Motors from a long time ago. It had a heck of a run in the early nineties, so I watched it. I finally bought it in September at just under $13 a share. It moved nicely to $16, rested for several months; then exploded to $24. I sold it shortly thereafter at about $22.50. Cramer recommended it at about $25 in April and I thought, "Boy has he missed the boat." But you know what? SPAR closed yesterday at $35.06 a share. Unbelievable!

Yes, a lot of high VST stocks soar beyond belief. Unfortunately, some of them crash and burn after their glorious flights. Maybe Spartan will also dive one of these days. So don't tell me about NTRI, HANS, TIE, SIM, GROW, AXR, ROCM and many others. I know all about them. But that's the way it is. The trend is your friend until it comes to the end. Comes to the end? That's where the problem is. I don't want to pick stocks that are coming to an end. I want stocks that are at the beginning. How can we do that?

Well, I tried to answer this question a couple of months ago. Remember my essay of April 5, 2007, "Cherry Picking for Big Winners?" That's when we showed you how the "High CI Prospects" strategy worked. On April 13, 2007 we gave you more pointers for cherry-picking big winners. Then on April 20, 2007, we began delivering a WatchList of High CI Prospects that we like the best. It's called "HCIP Favorites." We do all the work. All you have to do is open the WatchList and pick the winners you like. What can be simpler than that? Ten of the of twenty-two stocks in the first 04/20/07 WatchList of HCIP Favorites were showing annualized gains of over 100% as of last night. Not bad.

Another strategy that finds high VST stocks ready to soar is Gordon White's "High-VST Newcomers." This strategy is elegant in its simplicity. It has only one line of code. It finds stocks whose VST has gone from < 1.40 to > 1.40 over the past week, ranked by VST descending. Stocks which make it to a VST of 1.40 or greater are the stocks to watch. This is the mother lode. As of last night, there were only 154 in the database. How should we mine this data?

Typically we would go straight for the highest VST stocks. These stocks make money, but sometimes they're overextended. We can solve this problem, however, by simply picking high VST stocks with RT values below a certain maximum. But we have to be careful here. If the max RT level is too high, we may still be picking overextended stocks. If the max RT level is too low, we may be picking stocks that are actually heading south. So we want to be somewhere in between, picking hot stocks but not those that are too hot. To see how it's done, visit the VectorVest University and enjoy this week's "Strategy of the Week," called Sweet Spot.

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