In over 15 years of tracking the market, I have never seen as many short-term changes in direction as we have had in the last eight months. No sooner does the Price of the VectorVest Composite go up for a week or two, then it starts going down. After going down for a few weeks, it goes up. Swing traders like this kind of action, but it's hard for investors to make big money. So what's going on?

I have a theory. It may be all wet, but here it is. When Dr. Alan Greenspan was Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, he presented an aura of knowing what he was doing, but not telling anyone what it was. Since becoming the new Chairman of the Fed, Dr. Ben Bernanke has presented an image of not knowing what he is doing and telling everyone about it. In other words, Dr. Greenspan was perceived to be a leader who knew what he wanted to do and how to get it done. Dr. Bernanke is perceived to be indecisive, contradictory and possibly incompetent.

Leaders, be they right or wrong, exude confidence and have the conviction to move forward. Vacillators are afraid of being wrong, delay making decisions until the last moment and are always seeking more information. While it sounds very reasonable to let forthcoming economic data determine monetary policy, Dr. Bernanke has created uncertainty in what he will do and has given reason for investors of all stripes to second guess him on every bit of economic data that comes down the pike.

Take this week's Federal Open Market Committee Meeting for example. Investors were betting he would pause in raising interest rates for the 18th straight time, but they were also wondering what effect the Q2 Productivity report would have on his decision. While the report showed that productivity slowed and year-over-year labor costs rose at the fastest rate in five and one-half years, both of which will lead to higher inflation, he paused anyway. Core inflation already was well above his stated guidelines, so we now have the issue of whether he means what he says.

This question caused stock prices to go down Tuesday when the FOMC decision was released. Moreover, several astute articles have appeared since Tuesday questioning the wisdom of Dr. Bernanke's decision. As Wednesday's Wall Street Journal put it, "The Federal Reserve has seemed unsure how to proceed on monetary policy for several months, and yesterday they proved it." In my view, uncertainty and a bumpy market will rule the roost as long as we have an indecisive Fed that vacillates until it sees The Last Data Point.