by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 08/24/2007
Starting with Jim Cramer's August 3rd tantrum on CNBC to lower the Fed Funds rate, I have never seen so many cry babies in my life. And the chorus gets louder each day.
Yesterday I read Mr. Wayne Angell's op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled, "Lower the Fed Funds Rate." I also saw the spectacle of Mr. Angelo Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide Financial Corp., (CFC), on CNBC, claiming that the housing slump would lead to a recession. And let's not forget bond market guru, Mr. Bill Gross' recent comments. He said that lowering the Fed Funds rate would not be enough to clean up the subprime mess and that the White House should bailout homeowners who can't pay their bills. Is this advice being offered out of the goodness of their hearts?
Mr. Angell, a brilliant economist, was a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1986 to 1994. After leaving the Fed, he became Chief Economist at Bear Stearns. Now he is President of Angell Economics. Since leaving the Fed, he has written a number of articles regarding Fed policy and what the Fed should do. All of them, I felt, were aimed to help the big boys on Wall Street. Yesterday's attack was no different.
Mr. Mozilo, as knowledgeable a person in the mortgage business as you will find, is a CNBC regular. Boy, has he changed his tune. A year ago he reassured viewers that CFC would waltz through the housing slump, hardly missing a beat. Yes, he admitted that record profits wouldn't be possible during this period, but CFC would do very well, thank you. Nevertheless, he sold a lot of CFC stock just before the credit crunch hit the fan a few weeks ago. Just diversifying his assets, you know. Now CFC is lucky to be alive and BAC owns a large chunk of the company. Do you think cheap money would help CFC's stock price? Do you think the threat of a recession might encourage Dr. Bernanke to provide it?
Mr. Gross, Managing Director of PIMCO, is harder to figure out. He's considered to be the most successful bond investor of this generation and I'm not sure where his skin is in this game. I would guess, however, that the violent turmoil in bond markets has caused him to have more than a few sleepless nights lately. In a strange way he began voicing opinions about the stock market about a year ago. Given his stature, there was always a reaction to what he said. Just a few weeks ago, he triggered a sell-off by simply saying that stocks were overvalued. Now he wants the President to create a Reconstruction Mortgage Corporation, RMC, to bailout an expected 2,000,000 homeowners who can't pay their bills. At $100,000 a pop, that's a $200,000,000,000 ticket. Just about what "W's" father spent to bail out the S&Ls in the early'90s.
So what's Bernanke going to do? I'll stick with what I've said in the past. The Fed never lowers the Fed Funds rate until the economy is in trouble. In other words, the Fed never acts until it's too late. Oh, and thanks for the Free Advice.
P.S. Mr. Bush rejected Mr. Gross' suggestion for an RMC out of hand.
STRATEGY OF THE WEEK.
Mr. Gordon White will be giving a follow-up presentation on last week's "Easy Does It" video. He will show exactly how to implement and test a great "Easy Does It" strategy, first by using Portfolio Manager; then by using the Simulator. The techniques he demonstrates should put money in your pocket.
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