by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 05/15/2009
After attending the Las Vegas MoneyShow for more than 15 years, this was our best experience, by a long shot. The mood and sentiment of the attendees was upbeat and the feeling of confidence was back in the air. It was so nice to have so many satisfied customers visit our booths, hear our presentations and come to our reception.
The success stories I heard were most gratifying. Several customers told me how they got out of the market when we warned of the long bear market on November 2, 2007, and many others were raving about their gains since the March 9th bottom. One gentleman showed me a "real money" portfolio that was up 187%. Another showed me a portfolio that was up 242%. Still another said he bought Jail Break options on our C/Up signal in March, and he's up 525%.
A relatively new customer said, "VectorVest saved his life." He lost his job last December and began trading silver and gold futures to make some money, but he was losing his shirt. Then he discovered VectorVest and put Jail Break to work when we nailed the bottom. He gave his testimonial before 450 people at one of my presentations and showed everyone an equity chart of his portfolio which was going at a 45 degree angle. Do we appreciate this kind of feedback? You bet we do, and we gratefully say Thank You From Las Vegas.
PARADOX OF THE PEAKS.
Mr. Warren Buffett said it best, "The time to be fearful is when everyone is greedy and the time to be greedy is when everyone is fearful." Intuition, however, tells us to do just the opposite--we like to buy stocks when the market is soaring and back-off when the market is falling. Indeed, VectorVest advocates buying rising stocks in rising markets and selling falling stocks in falling markets. So who's right, Mr. Buffett or Mr. VectorVest?
Both: Mr. Buffett likes to buy stocks at bargain prices and he knows that stocks are at low prices when the market is at five-year lows. Mr. VectorVest also likes to buy stocks at bargain prices and he knows that stocks are at low prices when his Market Timing indicators are exceptionally low. In both cases, people are fearful when the market is low. Indeed, the Investor's Intelligence Indicator of Investment Advisors Sentiment hit an all-time low of 21.3% Bullish Advisors on October 31, 2008. (Please see the Investment Climate Graph.) The trick to making this approach to bargain hunting work, however, is to know when the market has stopped going down. Mr. Buffett makes no claims in this regard. Mr. VectorVest has done it time after time.
Currently, the market has risen dramatically from the March 9th bottom and Mr. VectorVest has become more fearful as the Price of the VectorVest Composite has gone higher and higher. Many of our Users have noted that our key Market Timing Indicators had risen to extremely high levels, thereby suggesting Bullish conditions. Inexperienced Users may have believed that was a good time to be greedy, but it was not. It was a time to become fearful. That's the lesson of the Paradox of the Peaks.
