by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 11/28/2008
The goal of every brokerage firm is to have thousands, if not millions, of its customers send them a check every month. So how do they try to make this happen?
They tell investors things that aren't true. They say things that have been carefully crafted to sound factual, logical and reasonable but are not. These things have been repeated so long and so often that they have become the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. They are presented as though they were meant to help you make money in stocks, but they actually were tailored to get your money and keep it. So what are these lies and how can you avoid their pitfalls?
Come hear my presentation on Saturday night, January 3, 2009, at our All-New, Two-Day Investment Seminar in Tampa, FL, and I'll tell you all about Wall Street's Five Biggest Lies.
JAIL BREAK.
What do Bottoms Up, Jubilee, Odd Fellows Long and Pirates Long have in common? Why have these strategies produced explosive profits time after time when the market soars from a bottom?
They all find stocks that have very low RT levels at market bottoms, whether you find these stocks by sorting by VST/RT, RV/RT or GRT/RT Desc. These strategies also find stocks with high RV levels. So the moral of this story is that reasonably good stocks which have been the most beaten down in price fly higher and faster than those that have held up the best. With this in mind, I wanted to create the mother of all explosive strategies. So I came up with a new strategy called "Jail Break."
by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 10/31/2008
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, October is known as a "jinx month" because of the crashes of 1929, 1987 and the 554 point drop in the DJIA on October 27, 1997. Well, it certainly didn't harm its reputation as a jinx month this year with catastrophic DJIA drops of over 100 points on four occasions, over 200 points on two occasions, over 300 points on three occasions, over 500 points on two occasions, over 600 points on one occasion and over 700 points on another occasion. But it also had several incredible up days. On October 13th, the DJIA soared 936.42 points and it also soared almost 900 points on October 28th.
The Mighty Dow is now completing its best week since 2001. Is this the October turn of the tide that has happened 11 times since WW II? If so, this October will also preserve its reputation of being a Bear Killer.
SHARING YOUR WISDOM.
I haven't written much about our User Groups lately, but we do have many wonderful User Groups throughout the country, including Alaska. We even have three groups in Canada and one in England. A new one is due to be formed in Australia. Several of these groups have been functioning for 10 years or more and new groups are being formed all the time. So what's the attraction?
As far as I can tell, people want to learn how to use VectorVest to make money in the stock market. Gee whiz, that's what our User Groups are all about. But where does one start? What does one do? Who does one call? No problem. Simply refer to the User Group section of these Views and find a User Group located near you. As a VectorVest subscriber, you're entitled to attend any Group anywhere, anytime. You don't have to call anyone. Just go to the meeting and see what's going on. Hopefully, you will find it to be both enjoyable and informative.
Had you been fortunate enough to attend Jim Mahoney's Lake Geneva, WI User Group last Saturday, you would have had a real treat. Jim is a long time VectorVest subscriber and a brilliant investor. Here's an unsolicited email of what Jim had to say about Saturday's meeting:
Hi Angel, Dr. D,
I just thought I would send you an email about our V. V. User Group Meeting this morning here in Lake Geneva, WI and you can share it with Dr. D.
After viewing the Home Page, I showed them a little technique that I use to view the Market Indexes. Thinking about why sometimes the 'newbies' didn't seem to understand, I suggested that they ask questions of themselves before they view the index charts in the Performance Graph Section.
Questions like: Is the Market Trending Upward or Downward? Which way is the VIX trending? Is the MTI below 1.00 or above 1.00? Is the BSR trending below 1.00 or above 1.00? Have either the MTI or BSR broken support or resistance? Once they prepared their mind by asking the above questions, they can now open the Performance Graph Charts and insert these symbols: SPX, DJX, IXIC, IWM, QQQQ and VIX. After determining that the five indexes were trending downward on 9-3-08, we then went to the VV Views and looked at the Strategy. Bingo. Now I had their undivided attention because I showed the results of the Ultra Short ETF's, MZZ, SCC, QID, TWM, SDS and DXD showing a return of 78% through 10-10.
I talked about the benefits of viewing ALL SECTOR CHART GRAPHS THREE TIMES A WEEK, IN DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES. I then showed them results of Sectors turning at precisely the time of the V V Calls or closely to it at turning points. From there I showed them some Industries within the Sectors and encouraged them to commit to learning as much as they could before the next meeting. Then I showed the results of doing it correctly. I also showed some ETF's to match the Sectors and the results.
I took them on a little journey showing opportunities within VectorVest on October 8-9-10-13 by first going the Sector Page, highlighting the DY column and highlighting Petroleum. Then before I moved on I said in the Petroleum Sector there 450 Stocks in a total of 10 Industries. One Industry where the treasures were found on the above dates is the Pipelines because the DY's are rich. Stocks like MMP, PAA, KMP, BPL and OKS allowed me to lock in double digit yields along with some quick gains. By now they are squirming in their seats will all kinds of questions. They are excited about the potential in Vector Vest.
I then went back and showed MTI charts and explanations of the Views around the turning Point bottoms along with the MTI of where we are now and "When will we know the bottom is in place conversation." We had a short discussion about why this Market is going to produce some amazing Profits within the next cycle up and they should prepare now to know what to do, how to do it and when to do it.
Around the close of the Meeting we discussed this week's comments and the Buffett Strategy and how you can find those types of stocks within VV. At closing I asked the attendees if they would commit to studying VectorVest like they never did before because they are the most fortunate people to come into VV at the bottom of the cycle. Many nodded their heads showing their intent. A couple of attendees came up and said it was the best $10 they ever spent. Hopefully we will see some follow through.
Today we had 26 enthusiastic people attend the Meeting. Some mentioned that they did not apply themselves to learning VV as they should have. Another long time user who I have known for quite a few years said, "Remember, the strength of the efforts are the measure of the results."
I don't care or wish to know what percent of the people that buy the trial actually buy the program, but I do have one suggestion. How about a 3-4 minute video like you find on U-tube, showing testimonials, graphs, results, testimonials where Users could go to upon purchase and see, hear and feel what it would be like to make 30% in a 2-3 month cycle. Would that help your closing ratio? I think it would. But then I am not always the sharpest nail in box.
What a wonderful program you have, Dr. D. VectorVest is doing an awesome job and what a vibrant, young dedicated group of employees VectorVest has. I am glad you came my way and I thank you for the gift of your friendship.
Jim.
Wow, what can I say, except thank you Jim for Sharing Your Wisdom.
by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 10/17/2008
Last week I warned about listening to the geniuses on CNBC who say, "Buy, buy, buy," no matter what the market's doing. Well, they were at it again this morning, big time. They had a runner at the bottom of the screen with the traditional, "Time to Buy Stocks?," question for guys like me who usually have the Mute button on. Nevertheless, I turned it off and listened to the conversation. Two pretty good money managers, Mr. Mark Prado and Mr. John Dorfman, both said now was a good time to buy stocks. Surprise. Surprise.
CNBC then quoted Mr. Warren Buffett who had published an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times today, saying, "Buy Stocks. Cash is Trash." His optimism is based upon the credo to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. He also said that cash is a terrible long-term asset...it pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Wisely, Mr. Buffett made no claims regarding what the market would do today, tomorrow or three years from now. He's just buying value for the long-term. Smart guy he is, indeed.
Finally CNBC brought in Mr. Sam Stovall, a veteran investor. He said this tough market reminds him of the late sixties, but he is buying stocks now. Mr. Stovall didn't elaborate, but the market was pretty hot in the mid-sixties and the Mighty Dow went above 1,000 for the first time. Inflation and interest rates went up in the late sixties and stock prices, of course, moved lower. Although it wasn't a happy time for investors, the market got worse in the seventies.
The Arab oil embargo of October 1973 triggered skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, causing a recession, and the stock market crashed. The Mighty Dow was crushed and it wasn't until August 1982 that it got above 1,000 and stayed there. Can a long, drawn-out dry-spell like that happen again?
You bet it can. The Arab oil embargo was a life changing event and its affects are still being felt to this very day. The current credit crisis is another such event and is also changing the way we live. The Arab oil embargo was not good for America and so far the credit crisis hasn't been either. So how can one imagine that now is a good time to buy stocks?
Last Friday, the Price of the VectorVest Composite closed at $18.59 per share, its lowest level since August 28, 2003. Buying stocks at a five-year low is not a bad time to go bargain hunting. Apparently a lot of investors thought so and the Price of the V V C soared a phenomenal $1.85 per share on Monday. It dipped a little on Tuesday and crashed to a lower low of $18.58 on Wednesday. Yesterday, Thursday, it opened to the downside and moved to an intraday low of $18.01. Then the big boys came back from lunch and stock prices took off. It was a beautiful reversal day and the Price of the V V C closed at its high of $19.23 per share. Last Friday's bottom was tested successfully, our ProTrader graph showed that a perfect Hammer formation had been formed, and the Primary Wave was Up.
As for today, the market opened to the downside, rallied well into positive territory; then pulled back, ending slightly in the red. So the Price of the V V C is up for the week and I believe it's Time to Buy.
FOR BARGAIN HUNTERS ONLY.
You can use either the search function in these Views or go to our blog at www.vectorvest.com to see what I have written on the subject of bargain hunting. Now's the time to do some homework.
by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 05/23/2008
Old King Cole was a merry old soul, and a merry old soul was he. He called for his pipe and he called for his bowl, and he called for his fiddlers three. Old King Coal was a merry old soul, and a merry old soul was he. He raised his prices and made more dough, and laughed at the greenies with glee.
Indeed old King Coal is a merry old soul and you would be too if you were enjoying strong demand, record prices and all-time high stock prices. Coal, that black, dirty, dusty stuff that gives off carbon dioxide when burned is on a roll. Despite the best efforts of the greenies to abolish its use, coal producers are thriving. Look at a 1-year graph of the Energy(Coal) Industry Group and you will see that its price bottomed nearly a year ago at $20.14 per share. Now it's trading at $39.71 per share, up 97% in nine months. Add EPS to your graph. It's gone from $1.02 per share to $1.67 per share in six weeks. Wow! I thought coal was going out of style. What's going on?
Yes, the coal producers went through a rough patch a while back, but coal isn't going away. In fact, with crude oil hitting $133 a barrel, natural gas prices soaring, the cost of nuclear power plants going up to $10 billion dollars and the relatively small contribution of alternative energy sources like solar or wind power, it may be becoming more important than ever. There's no doubt in my mind that coal is going to remain a major factor in meeting our future demand for electric power. Moreover, the conversion of coal to gasoline on a large scale may also become a reality in this country. Ever hear of a company called Sasol Ltd, (SSL)?
Last week, I said that Patriot Coal, PCX had the best combination of RT and CI. As I write this essay, it still does. Its earnings are forecasted to soar. But PCX is only one stock in an Industry Group that's on fire. So take a look at some of the other hot stocks in this Industry Group. Buy a big winner, and you too can become a merry old soul. Thanks to Old King Coal.
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