by Dr. Bart DiLiddo
Friday, 10/17/2008
Last week I warned about listening to the geniuses on CNBC who say, "Buy, buy, buy," no matter what the market's doing. Well, they were at it again this morning, big time. They had a runner at the bottom of the screen with the traditional, "Time to Buy Stocks?," question for guys like me who usually have the Mute button on. Nevertheless, I turned it off and listened to the conversation. Two pretty good money managers, Mr. Mark Prado and Mr. John Dorfman, both said now was a good time to buy stocks. Surprise. Surprise.
CNBC then quoted Mr. Warren Buffett who had published an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times today, saying, "Buy Stocks. Cash is Trash." His optimism is based upon the credo to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. He also said that cash is a terrible long-term asset...it pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Wisely, Mr. Buffett made no claims regarding what the market would do today, tomorrow or three years from now. He's just buying value for the long-term. Smart guy he is, indeed.
Finally CNBC brought in Mr. Sam Stovall, a veteran investor. He said this tough market reminds him of the late sixties, but he is buying stocks now. Mr. Stovall didn't elaborate, but the market was pretty hot in the mid-sixties and the Mighty Dow went above 1,000 for the first time. Inflation and interest rates went up in the late sixties and stock prices, of course, moved lower. Although it wasn't a happy time for investors, the market got worse in the seventies.
The Arab oil embargo of October 1973 triggered skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, causing a recession, and the stock market crashed. The Mighty Dow was crushed and it wasn't until August 1982 that it got above 1,000 and stayed there. Can a long, drawn-out dry-spell like that happen again?
You bet it can. The Arab oil embargo was a life changing event and its affects are still being felt to this very day. The current credit crisis is another such event and is also changing the way we live. The Arab oil embargo was not good for America and so far the credit crisis hasn't been either. So how can one imagine that now is a good time to buy stocks?
Last Friday, the Price of the VectorVest Composite closed at $18.59 per share, its lowest level since August 28, 2003. Buying stocks at a five-year low is not a bad time to go bargain hunting. Apparently a lot of investors thought so and the Price of the V V C soared a phenomenal $1.85 per share on Monday. It dipped a little on Tuesday and crashed to a lower low of $18.58 on Wednesday. Yesterday, Thursday, it opened to the downside and moved to an intraday low of $18.01. Then the big boys came back from lunch and stock prices took off. It was a beautiful reversal day and the Price of the V V C closed at its high of $19.23 per share. Last Friday's bottom was tested successfully, our ProTrader graph showed that a perfect Hammer formation had been formed, and the Primary Wave was Up.
As for today, the market opened to the downside, rallied well into positive territory; then pulled back, ending slightly in the red. So the Price of the V V C is up for the week and I believe it's Time to Buy.
FOR BARGAIN HUNTERS ONLY.
You can use either the search function in these Views or go to our blog at www.vectorvest.com to see what I have written on the subject of bargain hunting. Now's the time to do some homework.