Nothing, absolutely nothing, attracts more attention at this MoneyShow Conference in Washington DC than when we begin talking about Timing the Market. One look at our Market Timing Graph, which shows the incredible October drop in the Price of the VectorVest Composite and our market calls and the audience becomes spellbound.

It's easy to understand why this is happening. Most of the attendees here have been told by Wall Street Wizards that you can't time the market, so hang in there and buy, buy, buy while your profits wither away. Now, wiser but poorer, they see the light and more than one person has approached me and said, "I attended your presentations last year and I wish I had listened to what you said."

Yes, we were here in Washington last September and while I had turned somewhat bearish on the market, I tried not to make any predictions. I simply advised my listeners to follow our Market Timing Indicators and they would be all right. Many of them did follow our guidance and they are doing just fine. But they now want to know when this bear market will end. I can't give them an exact date, but I can say it will not be soon. How do I know?

Please refer to the Climate Section of these Views. Each week it reports on the Bullish/Bearish status of the market as defined by the Truth Chart. This week it is reporting that the market is in a Case 7, Bear Market Scenario with inflation, interest rates and earnings falling. We will remain in a Bear Market Scenario as long as forecasted earnings are falling. You may get a visual of these data by clicking on Graphs on the Main Menu Bar, selecting Market Climate Graphs, a Period of 5-Years, and both S&P Earnings fields. Then click on Get Graph.

This graph shows how dramatically S&P 500 forecasted earnings rose from 2003, leveled off and peaked on January 4, 2008. Its trend indicator turned lower even as earnings continued to rise because the momentum of the earnings gains lessened. Then the trend indicator fell below 1.00 to 0.99 on February 15, 2008. This is when the bear market began.

The bear market will prevail until the S&P 500 earnings trend indicator goes back above 1.00. I expect to see several months go by before this happens. Not only does the S&P 500 trend indicator move quite slowly, but analysts are cutting earnings forecasts and companies are reporting lower earnings. Taken together, these factors suggest that it will be at least six months before we see the birth of a new bull market. Of course, this does not preclude the occurrence of powerful Bear Market Rallies.